Carving of the Three Wise Monkeys who “hear no evil, say no evil, see no evil” in Nikko Toshogu, Japan. Restored c. 2021, but the original carvings are several centuries old (c. 1600s) and long out of copyright. – photograph by Jpatokal in Wikipedia “Three Wise Monkeys” licensed https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en
(1) SPLENDID ISOLATIONISM (OR STAYING OUT OF WARS)
Now this one should be a no-brainer, as it is Sun Tzu’s apparent eagerness to avoid war that makes him seem such a pinko pacifist ponce. Wars are costly and destructive, especially big or long wars of attrition, and even when you win, you often lose – Pyrrhic victory, anyone?
The best strategy lies in avoiding wars in the first place, if possible – and the worst place to be in wars is at the front line. The best place is sitting it out at the sidelines, ideally playing the balance of power and making money through financing or supplying your favored side – and only entering, if at all, to tilt the balance of power in your direction. This pretty much defines the historical foreign policy of Britain towards continental Europe (and generally) – they coined the phrase ‘splendid isolationism’ and it served them pretty well, until you know, they fought two world wars too many.
USA! USA! USA!
The Brits might have coined the phrase, but the United States historically defined itself by isolationism. George Washington declared it in his Farewell Address in 1796 and Thomas Jefferson similarly announced in his Inaugural Address in 1801 the policy of “entangling alliances with none”.
Isolationism suited the United States pretty well, generally avoiding war with European powers until, you know, it was big enough to win – and the strategy of sitting it out on the sidelines also essentially defines American foreign policy in the world wars. After the Second World War, it was a different story, as isolationism got a bit of bad press, although critics of American foreign policy on both left and right would argue that the United States has not been isolationist enough. It is even arguable that the United States fought the First World War to “make the world safe for democracy”, only to make it safe for fascism – then fought the Second World War against fascism only to make it safe for communism.
Of course, like most things in life and history, there’s a catch to isolationism – the luck of geography. No doubt Belgium would have loved splendid isolationism, but the geography of being wedged between France and Germany was against it. The isolationist ideal is to effectively have a continent to yourself, like the United States – or better yet, to actually have a continent to yourself.
Guarded by its navy of sharks and crocodiles – Wikipedia “Australia” by license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/deed.en
Islands are the next best thing, particularly as historically you could get by with a strong navy instead of a standing army. We’ve already mentioned Britain, but another example was Japan (to the point that it closed itself off from the world from 1641 to 1853), which also did pretty well until, you know, it fell victim to the most famous of classic blunders by getting involved in land wars in Asia.
Of course, you can’t just sit around in your isolationism like some shut-in crazy cat lady, you have to do things so as to win without fighting. What to do? Well, that brings me to the next two entries…