Daily Archives: June 19, 2026

Top Tens – History: Top 10 Wars (Special Mention: Revised) (8) Crisis of the Third Century

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Battle between Romans and Goths on the Ludovisi Battle Sarcophagus dated to 250-260 AD

 

(8) CRISIS OF THE THIRD CENTURY (235 – 284 AD)

 

Before the Fall came the Crisis…

With the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire deserving first special mention, is it any surprise that the Crisis of the Third Century, that dress rehearsal of the fall, is far behind?

The Crisis of the Third Century – also known as the Military Anarchy or Imperial Crisis – had much the same scope as the decline and fall. Indeed, the Crisis of the Third Century was part of the decline, even if the empire narrowly forestalled its fall for another two centuries. Many of the fundamental problems of the empire from the Crisis endured to the fall, even when in muted form.

Narrowly forestalled its fall, that is, as in the empire “nearly collapsed under the combined pressure of repeated foreign invasions, civil wars, and economic disintegration” – “at the height of the crisis, the Roman state had split into three distinct and competing polities”, the so-called Gallic Empire and Palmyrene Empire vying with the central Roman Empire in its western and eastern provinces respectively.

Indeed, had it collapsed – or fragmented – it is hard to imagine the eastern half of the empire enduring in quite the same durable form as it did two centuries later. For one thing, the empire was divided into thirds rather than halves – with what was to become the eastern empire, that is, apart from the Palmyrene Empire, more resembling a quarter than half, albeit not unlike the eastern empire after it had rebounded from Arab conquests. It also lacked the capital founded by Constantine – Constantinople, with its nigh impenetrable defenses against all but the most overwhelming siege – or indeed the seat of imperial government founded as its own distinctive new Roman empire.

Although mind you, the eastern empire pulled off its own near miraculous recovery from crises – note that plural, crises – to rival that of the third century, like it looked back at the classical empire’s direst crisis and said hold my beer.

Two things saved the classical empire in the Crisis of the Third Century, even if it went from classical to late empire.

The first was that, as fearsome as the foreign invasions were, they lacked the ability or even intent to conquer territory or form their own states within the empire, rather than raiding it for plunder albeit on a larger scale than ever before. Even the Sassanid Persian Empire – the closest adversary the Roman Empire had to a rival peer state – for all its successes only raided Roman provinces and moved its border slightly away from its capital.

The second was a series of soldier emperors or barracks emperors – mostly the so-called Illyrian emperors originating from that region as the then heartland of the Roman army – who managed to hold the line and turn the tide to restore the empire, “an accomplishment many historians regard as about as unlikely and impressive as any of Rome’s Golden Age achievements in building the empire in the first place”.

Foremost among them of course was Aurelian – Restitutor Orbis or Restorer of the World, who reunited the empire by defeating the rival Palmyrene and Gallic Empires – but he built on the achievements of the emperors who came before him, Claudius Gothicus and arguably also Gallienus, and had successors who consolidated his achievements, notably Probus and the emperor who is credited with finally ending the Crisis, Diocletian.

At the core of the Crisis was the political instability of imperial succession (and usurpation) suggested by the other names used for the Crisis (Military Anarchy and Imperial Crisis).

Tacitus had observed that the ‘secret of the empire’ had been exposed with the succession crisis after Nero in the first century – “that emperors could be made elsewhere than in Rome”, a secret that excited “all the legions and their generals”.

Despite this observation, those legions and their generals had mostly followed the various imperial dynastic successions for the first two and a half centuries of empire – its founding Julio-Claudian dynasty, the Flavian dynasty, the adoptive succession of the Five Good Emperors, and the Severan dynasty.

In the Crisis, however, the legions and their generals had become very excited indeed – as one so-called barracks emperor succeeded another, usually by usurpation. And that’s just the line of imperial succession generally regarded as legitimate – beyond that there were literally countless usurpers, some of which we are still discovering through archaeology or coins.

Indeed, it often seems from the Crisis that where even the most minor commanders of a legion or legions had even the barest degree of military success (or were just left outside or stranded by the ebbing tide of imperial authority), they would proclaim themselves as emperor – or their legions would.

Not surprisingly, with Roman commanders and their legions marching either to advance their own imperial claims or against those of others, that saw them abandon the defense of the empire’s borders.

That was compounded by drain on population by the Cyprian Plague that raged through the empire, and which struck military barracks or manpower particularly hard – indeed the capture of Emperor Valerian by the Persians, the first time an emperor was captured by foreign forces, was attributed to his army being laid waste by plague.

The population decline of the empire also compounded its economic instability, characterized by the collapse of its currency and trade.

Through the gaping holes left in the imperial borders poured the empire’s recurring foreign enemies to raid it – further compounding the empire’s economic decline as the empire’s problems became an intense feedback loop as each problem cranked up the others.

Foremost in notoriety as the empire’s recurring enemies were the German barbarian tribes – who had grown in military capability (and relative population) through two centuries of contact with the empire, although they were not yet as capable as they were when they brought about the fall (and mostly replaced those Roman commanders and their legions vying within the empire).

The capabilities of the Germans were increased by forming new tribal coalitions or confederations – particularly the Franks, who raided across the Rhine through Gaul as far as Spain, and the Alemanni, who raided through the Alps into Italy, even threatening the city of Rome itself (the first external threat the city had faced for centuries) and giving Aurelian himself pause, inflicting his only defeat before he rallied to victory against them.

And across the Danube came the Germans who were ultimately to do more than anyone else to bring about the fall of the empire – the Goths, raiding as far as Greece and even Asia Minor because they managed to get themselves a fleet and there’s nothing worse than barbarians with boats.

All these German raiders paled in comparison to the Sassanid Persians – which as I noted was the only state on Rome’s borders that came close to being Rome’s peer – as they raided deep into Rome’s eastern provinces, particularly Syria.

As was typically the case, Rome’s worst enemy was itself as it fractured into three rival empires fighting among themselves. The core empire remained around Italy, fortunately including the Illyrian military heartland of the empire and its breadbasket in north Africa – but it lost its western provinces to the Gallic Empire led by usurpers, and its eastern provinces to the Palmyrene Empire, essentially a client state that had loyally led the defense against the Sassanid Persians but had gone rogue under its queen Zenobia.

Fortunately, along came Aurelian – breathing two centuries of life into the empire before the fall.

 

RATING: A-TIER (TOP TIER)

 

Top Tens – History: Top 10 WW2 Combatant Alternate History Rankings

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Alternate (heh) cover for The Man in the High Castle (2018 hardcover Gateway edition) – I keep using covers for this book because it and those covers are so representative of alternate history, in general and for WW2 (fair use)

 

 

WW2 COMBATANT ALTERNATIVE HISTORY RANKINGS

 

I ranked my Top 10 Wars by alternative history scenarios, where I ranked WW2 in wild tier – as prolific or thematic in fantasy or SF rather than historical plausibility.

But how do the WW2 combatants rank by their alternate history, whether in historical plausibility or in fantasy and SF?

 

S-TIER (GOD TIER)

 

(1) GERMANY

 

Yes, it’s Germany in god-tier top spot for WW2 combatant alternate history rankings – and it isn’t even close.

WW2 alternate history is Germany. That is, alternate history scenarios for Germany – and particularly German victory – define WW2 alternate history, almost to the exclusion of anything else, albeit in fiction rather than historical plausibility.

You might say that is inherent in the very description as alternate history. After all, alternate history typically involves a different outcome than the actual one, which for WW2 would be Axis rather than Allied victory. Unless of course your alternate history scenarios involve the Allies (or least particular combatants within the Allies) having a better outcome than the one they did, but where’s the fun – or more precisely the dramatic or narrative conflict that is key to fiction – in that?

Alternate history scenarios for German victory in WW2 are the most prolific (and popular) of all alternate history scenarios in fiction, such that it has whole anthologies, tropes and its own entry in the Encyclopedia of Science Fiction (“H!tler Wins”), the latter reflecting its thematic importance within the SF genre.

It would be interesting to calculate what proportion of all alternate history fiction is comprised by alternate history scenarios for Germany or German victory in WW2. I don’t think it would quite be a majority as in half or more, but I suspect it would be close – or at least a very substantial proportion.

Interestingly, alternate history scenarios for German victory in WW2 not only come in science fiction flavors – such as giving them technology ahead of its time, a trope dubbed as Stupid Jetpack H!tler in TV Tropes – but also come in fantasy flavors. The best example of the latter is giving them magic or supernatural allies – the trope dubbed as Ghostapo in TV Tropes, although I prefer the title of the Dennis Wheatley novel, They Used Dark Forces.

Alternate history scenarios for German victory in WW2 also have thematic importance within the fantasy genre, albeit as part of the wider importance of that war and indeed both world wars within the genre, reflected in the entries for each in the Encyclopedia of Fantasy.

From the entry for World War II in the Encyclopedia of Fantasy – “despite the attempts of propagandists on both sides, no wholly evil figure emerges from World War I to occupy the world’s imagination, no one of a viciousness so unmitigated that it seems almost supernatural; H!tler, on the other hand, has all the lineaments of a Dark Lord, and the Reich he hoped to found was a parody of the true Land”

And yet, such alternate history scenarios seem so much less plausible than the actual historical outcome of Allied victory – German victory seems an incredible long shot from the outset, only getting longer the further you go into the war.

 

 

A-TIER (TOP TIER)

 

(2) BRITAIN

 

Let’s face it – WW2 alternate history is primarily German victory, with all other combatants as footnotes.

Britain tops them but it was a close call with my next entry.

First, Britain is one of the two top sources of WW2 alternate history fiction involving German victory. Heck, British writers were writing it even before the war, albeit as cautionary tales at that point, with Swast!ka Night by Katherine Burdekin in 1937.

Reflecting this, Britain as combatant tends to play a predominant role in any WW2 alternate history German victory scenario – but also it also reflects that the latter usually involves the defeat or at least acquiescence of Britain as Germany’s first enduring major adversary. In the darkest and grimmest versions, that involves German occupation of Britain itself, as encapsulated by the title of Len Deighton’s SS-GB, although I have seen the occasional alternate history in which Britain is still at war or cold war with Germany, with the latter having won against the Soviet Union.

There are also alternate history British victory scenarios. The Man in the High Castle is best known for its German and Japanese victory dividing the United States between them, but everyone forgets the alternate history within the alternate history, The Grasshopper Lies Heavy – which is not our world but another timeline of Allied victory in which a resurgent British Empire emerged as the primary global superpower.

When it comes to historical plausibility rather than fictional depictions, Britain would outrank Germany. Perhaps not so much within the Anglo-French or Anglo-American alliances where Britain obviously had less weight than France or the United States respectively,  or even for Britain alone against Germany where it had little prospect of victory, but more for those spheres of the war where its power of decision had more potential impact – in the Mediterranean, and to some extent in Asia against Japan.

And even more, for alternate history scenarios pre-empting the war itself, primarily contrary to appeasement as foreign policy – which is what scores Britain its top tier ranking. Some histories present as virtually catalogues of turning points for alternate history where Britain “won” by pre-empting war with Germany before it even began – not least Churchill in the first volume of his WW2 history, or indeed, his reference to the Second World War as “The Unnecessary War”.

 

(3) USA

 

It was a close call between Britain and the USA for which came next after Germany. Britain just edged out the US because it was more immediate to war with Germany, both in time and space, but the US obviously had more impact as the greater – and some might say decisive – power.

Otherwise, the US is similar to Britain for alternate history rankings.

After Britain, the US is the other of the two top sources of WW2 alternate history fiction involving German victory.

Similarly, the US as combatant tends to play a predominant role in any WW2 alternate history German victory scenario, but as opposed to the defeat or acquiescence usually involved for Britain, the US tends to be eliminated as combatant by its own isolationism or non-interventionism – although thereafter it may be at war or cold war with a victorious Germany.

Sure, one of the most famous WW2 German victory alternate histories, The Man in the High Castle, is not only by an American writer but also has the classic depiction of German and Japanese victory dividing the United States between them. Firstly, it is something of an outlier given the historical improbability of any German (or Japanese) invasion or occupation of the United States – even in the book itself, it has the quality of trippy fantasy. Secondly, its depiction of an occupied and divided United States originated in continued isolationism as a result of President-elect Franklin Delano Roosevelt being assassinated by Giuseppe Zangara in 1933.

Like Britain, the United States also outranks Germany in alternate history when it comes to historical plausibility rather than fictional depictions. There’s the American supreme command of the Anglo-American alliance in the European theater, as well as its overwhelming predominance in the Pacific War – both of which have potential turning points where the United States could have improved upon the historical outcome.

Again, like Britain, there are alternate history scenarios for the United States pre-empting the war itself, abandoning isolationism at an earlier point or eschewing it altogether as foreign policy after the First World War – or alternatively, avoiding war with Japan but continuing to aid the Allies or join them in the war with Germany.

 

(4) JAPAN

 

As the next major Axis combatant after Germany, Japan looms large in alternate history victory scenarios.

Potentially, Japan could have its own alternate history victory scenarios separate from those for Germany, but let’s face it, Japan’s almost always a footnote to German victory in alternate history, carried along by Germany’s victory or riding Germany’s coattails to victory.

There are alternate history scenarios for Japanese victory in WW2, but they are usually a consequence or side effect of German victory – often with things looking grim between the two of them after their shared victory, as in The Man in the High Castle, where Germany is planning to attack Japan.

In fairness, that reflects their historical plausibility. While one can certainly find turning points where Japan could have done better than in actual history, ultimately none of them, singly or even in combination, seem to have any realistic prospect of a Japanese victory if Germany was defeated. Indeed, to the extent that Japan had any long-term strategy, it assumed German victory. The only exception would seem to be those alternate history scenarios where Japan “wins” by not going to or avoiding war in the first place, at least against the United States (or on the Axis rather than Allied side).

To that effect, one of the most famous alternate history depictions of German victory in WW2, Fatherland by Robert Harris, had Germany win while Japan was defeated as in actual history – something that is so implausible in reverse as to be close to impossible, except for turning points that verge on fantasy.

I have read only one alternate history which indeed verged on fantasy – a short story where prolonged Japanese resistance to invasion (in the absence of the atomic bomb) and Allied war-weariness impossibly combine not only to turn it around for Japan but also for Germany under Allied occupation to revive its war, with both winning.

 

B-TIER (HIGH TIER)

 

(5) USSR

 

The USSR is the elephant in the room – or rather, the bear in the room – for any alternate history German victory scenario.

After all, if the USSR remains intact or present, then it remains as a potential adversary – and the only viable one on the European continent – to challenge or defeat Germany, no matter how much Germany has been victorious elsewhere.

Hence, alternate history Germany victory scenarios usually involve the elimination of the USSR as combatant through defeat or occupation by Germany, albeit often with a remaining rump state or guerilla partisan movement resisting Germany. However, given the Anglo-American perspective or setting for most WW2 alternate histories, this tends to happen offscreen or as backstory.

There are exceptions, such as in Len Deighton’s SS-GB where both Germany and the USSR have continued their pact with each other.

Similarly to the other allies, the USSR outranks Germany in alternate history when it comes to historical plausibility rather than fictional depictions, albeit perhaps more pre-empting the war or at least invasion by Germany than doing better in its strategic options once invaded – although it obviously could have improved on its performance for the latter.

One such pre-emptive scenario has become the stuff of historiographical debate, although I think there is little substance to it – the so-called Soviet offensive plans controversy, with its hypothesis that the Soviets were planning their attack on Germany in 1941 but were beaten to the punch by the Germans.

 

C-TIER (MID TIER)

 

(6) FRANCE

 

Like other WW2 combatants when it comes to alternate history, France is a footnote to German victory scenarios.

That’s because Germany’s defeat and occupation of France, as occurred in actual history, is assumed as background to any German victory scenario (with the turning point for Germany winning the war itself occurring after that).

After all, Germany’s defeat of France is what made German victory scenarios plausible, in actual history as well as fictional depictions. If the Germans don’t even get that far in any alternate history scenario, then it’s usually an early Allied victory scenario.

Germany’s defeat of France in 1940 was essentially a foregone conclusion, in actual history or in alternate history fictional depictions. France was arguably the only major adversary Germany could defeat, because it was in essence a smaller, weaker version of Germany.

Yes, I know that the western allies in 1940 had material parity or even superiority against Germany in key aspects of their armies, notably in tanks, but I’m referring to France as a power with similar primacy of the army within its armed forces – except inferior in population and industrial base to Germany, and above in all, in military doctrine and psyche.

France made critical mistakes in its preparation, disposition of forces, and strategy for defending itself in 1940 – but unlike the other allies, it lacked the time, space or resources to recover from those mistakes.

Hence, unlike the other Allied combatants so far, France doesn’t really have many viable alternate history scenarios for improving its position, at least after commencement of German offensive operations in 1940.

Yes, France could obviously have improved upon its performance in 1940, whether changing the outcome or not, but that really would have been a matter of better disposition and preparation of its forces prior to German offensive operations – and even that seems unlikely given the accumulation of its flawed military doctrine and its psychological weakness over years.

So, for alternate history scenarios for France improving upon the actual outcome and winning against Germany, we’re really talking France taking pre-emptive action against Germany – contrary to the appeasement as foreign policy it shared with Britain – pre-empting any war or at least the German offensive in 1940.

And for that we’re talking a narrow window of opportunity, certainly from 1933 through to Germany’s remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936, and potentially afterwards up until offensive action against Germany in 1939 when most German forces were engaged against Poland.

There are also the intriguing alternate history possibilities of France fighting on against the Axis from its colonies with forces in exile from France, particularly its navy – like a latter-day Athens against Persia in the Battle of Salamis. You know, as opposed to actual history, with French colonies or forces outside France consistently caving to Axis pressure and only showing resistance against the Allies.

 

D-TIER (LOW-TIER)

 

(7) ITALY

 

Italy has many alternate history victory scenarios, both separately and contributing to German victory – I’m sorry, I can’t keep that up with a straight face.

As I’ve said previously for alternate history scenarios of Italian victory in WW2…I’ll just leave it here like the joke it is. Come to think of it, the whole Axis set up seems like the rule of three set-up for a joke, with Italy as the punchline – Germany, Japan, and Italy walk into a war…

Don’t laugh too much, Germany – your alternate history victory scenarios aren’t much more plausible either, arising more from their popularity and profile in fictional depictions. As I like to quip, paraphrasing the Cold War witticism that the Soviet Union was just Upper Volta with rockets, Germany was just Italy with rockets in WW2.

But seriously, as the next major Axis combatant in Europe after Germany, Italy obviously does pop up on occasion in alternate history German victory scenarios – although when it does, it’s consistently as a background feature or side effect of German victory.

That’s even more so than Japan, which usually does at least something on its own to contribute to Germany victory. Similarly to Japan, however, things often look grim between Germany and Italy afterwards, but without the buffer of geographic distance that Japan has for itself or competition with Germany over its sphere of influence.

For example, The Man in the High Castle refers to Germany draining the Mediterranean, which I can’t help but think does not bode well for Italy – and that vibe is even more so for the TV adaptation, which omits reference to Italy.

As for Italy’s military performance, obviously there’s much it could do better – arguably pretty much everything – but even if Italy “won” everything it did, it’s difficult to see much impact, with the obvious exceptions of remaining neutral or joining the Allied side.

 

(8) CHINA

 

We’re reaching the tail-end here – China doesn’t even really feature as a footnote in German victory alternate history scenarios, except to the extent that is part of the background of any Japanese victory.

That’s perhaps a little unfair, since similarly to the Soviet Union for Germany, China is essentially the elephant in the room for any Japanese victory scenario – as Japan widening the war beyond China was essentially driven by the stalemate in its war with China. Hence any Japanese victory scenario usually involves the elimination or at least minimization of continued Chinese resistance.

While China deserves credit for its endurance in that resistance in actual history, few people propose alternate history or counterfactual Chinese victory scenarios against Japan, reflecting their lack of historical plausibility. Instead, more people seem to propose alternate history scenarios for Nationalist China winning the civil war that resumed afterwards.

China certainly could have done better against Japan, but nothing that would seem to plausibly involve defeating or expelling Japan on its own. Anything close to that would seem to have required much larger scale or longer-term preparation – or radically different points of departure from actual history – that were beyond its means as it lurched from revolution through warlord era to civil war.

On the other hand, Japan would also seem to have lacked the means to decisively defeat China or even maintain its occupation of China in the long term, at least without significant points of departure from actual history. It seems far more plausible for Japan’s war with China to have become something like the Vietnam War on a grand scale – ironically as Japan might also have found itself fighting its own version of the Vietnam War had it won the Pacific War.

It’s not a complete wash for China in alternate or counterfactual WW2 history, as there’s at least one interesting proposition- what if Germany had continued to support China instead of switching to its preference for alliance with Japan from 1936 onwards? Could Germany and the United States effectively had found themselves on the same side in their support for China – and not on opposing sides through a German alliance with Japan? And hence could Germany have avoided finding itself at war with the United States through a Japanese attack on the United States?

I suppose there’s also the alternate history scenario if Chiang Kai-shek had accepted the reported offer by FDR for Chinese control over all Indochina – although that’s really alternate history for another war…

 

X-TIER (WILD TIER)

 

(9) POLAND

 

Wait, what? Poland? Really?

Yes, really. As casus belli of the European war, Poland is indeed the focus of alternate or at least counterfactual history scenarios, albeit mostly not Polish victory scenarios.

At least not at the commencement of the war (in Europe) on 1 September 1939. Such was the material and positional disadvantage of Poland vis-a-vis Germany that Poland was effectively defeated before firing a shot. Poland’s situation went from hopeless to completely hopeless with the involvement of the Soviet Union. There’s no alternate history Polish victory scenario in 1939.

Or is there? Well, maybe not in 1939 but what about a preventive war by Poland against Germany in 1933? It is commonly reported that Poland sounded out France about a pre-emptive strike in concert against the new regime in Germany (although there doesn’t seem to be any reliable source for this) but then switched to signing a non-aggression pact with Germany on 26 January 1934 due to French inaction. Even without the French, I think Poland would have been able to take on Germany on its own – admittedly only in the narrow window of opportunity in that year prior to any substantial rearmament by Germany. Considering how things turned out for Poland from 1939 onwards, it’s hard to see how things could have turned out any worse if they had done so in 1933.

What if Poland had again sought a preventive war in concert with France against Germany after that, with the greatest and probably last opportunity to do so in reaction to the German militarization of the Rhineland?

What if Poland supported Czechoslovakia in 1938, rather than supported Germany against it – to the extent of effectively aligning with Germany to reclaim territory? Historian Paul Johnson observed that Poland was to do the same with the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia three decades later in 1968, when in both cases it was in their longer-term interest to support Czechoslovakia. Harry Turtledove used this in the other direction for Poland as the ally of Germany in his alternate history where the war broke out in 1938, although personally I don’t think Poland would have gone that far.

What if Poland had agreed to Soviet forces on their territory as part of an alliance with Britain and France? I mean, as it turned out that happened anyway without any substantial resistance by Poland but in this scenario the Soviets would have at least been their nominal ally rather than that of Germany.

For that matter, what if Poland had agreed to German demands in 1939, including membership of the Anti-Comintern Pact – and the transit of German forces on Polish territory against the Soviet Union? Although frankly, I have my doubts about how sincere such an offer was – and that Poland rightly rejected it as their position would have been precarious as a client state subservient to Germany.

Even in 1939, what if Poland had properly coordinated better defensive lines behind their borders with a genuine French or Anglo-French offensive into Germany rather than the half-a$$ed French Saar Offensive? Although frankly again, I have my doubts whether the French military command was capable of such an offensive.

There are still alternative history scenarios for Poland after 1939.

Historian H.P. Willmott observed that “it has been argued, and not altogether frivolously, that the crucial German mistake of the Second World War was to have behaved atrociously towards Poland and correctly to France, when the reverse may have served German interests to better effect”.

And what if instead of crushing the Warsaw Uprising in 1944, Germany had simply withdrawn to leave it as a thorn in the Soviet side? What if Germany had expanded upon that to revive a genuinely independent Polish state as a buffer against the Soviet advance?

And finally, perhaps the biggest alternate history scenario about Poland doesn’t so much involve Poland but Britain and the historical commencement of the war itself – what if Britain had not made its guarantee to Poland, or at least had not done so unconditionally? After all, without the guarantee being conditional upon Soviet participation, Britain lacked the means to give effect to it, whether to defend Poland, deter Germany, or as it turned out, to successfully wage war against Germany in western Europe – all of which even more so after Germany’s pact with the Soviet Union.

 

(10) AUSTRALIA

 

I’m rounding out a top ten of WW2 combatant alternate history rankings with Australia as wild-tier entry in tenth place.

Not that we’re talking any alternate history scenarios where Australia emerges as the supreme victor of WW2, although I’d pay to see that. Instead, Australia tends to play the same support role to Britain and the United States in alternate history as it did in actual history.

Accordingly, things tend to look not too rosy for Australia in any alternate history scenario that involves the elimination of Britain or the United States as combatants – although Australia is remote enough from Britain to avoid the same sort of invasion or occupation by Germany in such scenarios.

Germany’s ally Japan is another matter, such that alternate history Axis victory scenarios often involve Australia’s occupation or at least invasion by Japan – even if in actual history Japan ruled out an invasion of Australia as too tough and instead aimed at isolating it.

The most famous alternate history scenario for the Japanese invasion of Australia was proposed by the wartime Australian government itself in strategic planning, with the so-called Brisbane Line as its line of defense – or more precisely they were accused of such a proposal abandoning half of Australia, as there was no documentation for it.

Some alternate history scenarios involve Australia (and New Zealand) as lone Allied holdouts with the United States and Canada. On that note, I’d like to see alternate history scenarios which propose British royal exile to Australia as opposed to Canada.

Otherwise, there’s probably not too many alternative victory scenarios that might have been achieved by Australian forces in the war. An exception might be the intriguing possibility of whether Australian forces could have successfully defended Malaya and Singapore if Australia had proposed its role to Britain from the outset as keeping its forces to defend against Japan in the Far East rather than deploying them to the Middle East. That seems feasible given the limited army forces Japan could commit to its campaigns in south-east Asia but the decisive factor probably would be the airpower Australia could deploy.

Australia often pops up in alternate history scenarios, including those of invasion by Japan as in The Bush Soldiers by John Hooker in 1984.

Harry Turtledove also featured Australia in his Worldwar series – in which lizard-like aliens invade Earth during WW2 in 1942. Sadly, Australia ends up occupied by the aliens – after they nuked Sydney and Melbourne. Those lizard ba$tards! What’s worse, the nuclear attacks were ostensibly in retaliation for American nuclear attacks on Lizard forces, but the aliens diverted it to Australia’s two biggest cities to make Australia easier to occupy.